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Introduction to the Breaking Point Rating

March 28, 2024 5:51 PM

Introduction to BP Rating (BPR) v0.2

BP Rating (BPR) v0.2 is a comprehensive player rating system that aims to assign value to a player for their individual role in the game’s outcome. We’ve been testing this for a few months, and it’s still currently in early-stage development. BPR is similar to other ratings stats like HLTV’s Rating 2.0 or the player rating. The goal of each of these ratings is to provide a more nuanced rating than kill-death ratio (KD). BPR is scaled with 1.0 being an “average” performance.

BPR v0.2 takes into account a player’s kills, player’s deaths, the map score, and each team’s total kills and deaths. These stats are then input into an algorithm to produce a single rating which aims to show each player’s overall impact for that map. 

Each BP Rating is discrete, meaning BPR is calculated on an individual map basis. A player’s BPR from each map in a series can then be averaged to calculate that player’s series BPR, and a player's overall BPR is the average of each series BPR.

Where β1 and β2 are mode-specific coefficients that scale for team-level outcomes, σmode is the mode-level standard deviation in Impact. 3σmode + 1 allows BPR to be scaled to a 1.0 average rating. BPR >= 2.0 is over 3 standard deviations above average (top 0.3% of player performances). This also makes the distribution of BP Rating similar to the distribution of KD’s.

The updated BP Rating formula is now live on our site, and you can view season BP ratings it under player stats leaderboards or advanced player stats. They're also live on event pages and a few other stats pages on the site.

You have may also noticed BP rating is present on our match pages too, right next to the damage column!

BP Rating in Practice: 2024 Season

So without further delay, let's get into it...

Here are the top 5 players, by BP Rating, from Major 2:

And here are the top 5 players, by BP rating, from Major 1:

Here are the 10 players with the largest positive gap between their kill-death ratio (KD) and their BPR (BPR > KD), e.g. these players benefit the most from using BP Rating as a method of evaluation:*

And the 10 players with the largest negative gap between KD and BPR (KD > BPR):*

*Players with fewer than 7 matches played this season removed. Season BPR calculated by an arithmetic average of each player’s series BPR’s.

And here is the distribution of series BPR’s vs. distribution of series KD’s:

Courtesy of Dr. Doug Liebe

What about Damage and Assists?

Assists are a great tool to better understand who is efficiently putting in damage. Currently, the plan is to include assists in v1.0 of BPR. 

Unlike other games, it’s difficult to quantify the impact of assists exactly. In FPS’s like CS2 or Valorant, but damage in COD is regenerated. 

Damage that doesn't lead to kills (assists) could negatively contribute to a player or team’s success, to some degree. In SND especially, but in other modes as well, damage that gets healed gives up a player’s location. On the flip side, being able to consistently lay down damage is an incredible asset to a team in some respawns and can positively affect a team’s ability to get kills, achieve objectives around the map, or even win a map. 

There is a lot of nuance that goes into these decisions and we’re still actively evaluating how to incorporate damage and assists.

What about Other Stats, including First Bloods in SND, Hardpoint Time, or Objective oriented stats (Bomb plants in SND, etc)?

Many of these stats, including untraded first bloods in SND, are extremely valuable to a team’s success. As we continue to collect data and tune our rating, we’ll continue to evaluate including some of these other stats in the model. For now, we wanted to start with tracking the fundamentals as they relate to the outcome of a map.

Additional Info

BP Rating v0.2 was developed in partnership with Dr. Doug Liebe. You can find Dr. Liebe on Twitter or read more of his writing on Medium. He was previously the analyst for LA Guerrillas and founded CoDStats, the predecessor to Breaking Point. 

We will answer any questions and Dr. Liebe may also answer some questions about BPR in the comments below! ⬇️⬇️⬇️